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REPLAY – Sinai’s GDP Conference Call – 7/31/13
The U.S. Economy in the Second Quarter and Beyond: The Outlook
– First Report on 2nd Qtr. GDP—The Read
- Q2, First Half, and History—Still a Disappointment?
- Strengths and Weaknesses
- History Rewrites, 2010-12, and Back—Implications Going Forward?
- Messages from the Data
– But Does Q2 Matter Now? Does GDP Matter?
- Q3, Second Half, and Beyond Prospects
- DE “Baseline” Prospect and Alternative Risk Scenarios
– Focus on Fed
- Fed “Scenario” to Execute Fed “Plan”—Coming About?
– Economy Lift up?
– Sustained Improvement in the Labor Market?
– Tilt Up on Inflation?
– FOMC Statement and Monetary Policy Prospect
– “Tight Fiscal—Easy Money” Theme
- Fiscal Drag—How Much, How Long?
- DE Assumptions and Forecast
– Financial Market Prospects