REPLAY – The Labor Market, Economy and Fed Prospect Conference Call – 2/3/17

Posted February 3, 2017 by rvillareal

The Labor Market, Economy and Fed Prospect

Starting 2017: Overshoot?

• Labor Market in January and 2017

• Jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and Wage Inflation—Full Employment?
• Price Stability Objective Coming Soon?
  • The Economy Prospect Post-Trump—Cyclically Solid
• Baseline Prospect—“Overshoot” (70%)
• “Growth Disappointment” (5%, Down)
• “Upside Surprise” (15%, Down from 20%)
• “Boom-Bust” (10%, up from 5%)
  • Fed and Future Monetary Policy
    • Latest Meeting
    • Fed Policy Scenario
    • A Trumpian Fed Coming?
  • Financial Markets Perspectives and Forecasts
  • Risks to “Optimism”
• Business Cycle Dynamics
• Shocks
• Domestic Political—Trump Self Destructs
• Trade and Protectionism—Biggest Economic Risk
• Geopolitical Clashes—U.S. Isolationism and Potential Conflicts
• Expectations Disappointments—Fiscal Stimulus

Does Not Occur; Tighter Monetary Policy; Consumer Malaise

• Rest-of-the-World Economy Pickup Fails