REPLAY – Sinai’s GDP Conference Call – 1/30/14

Posted January 31, 2014 by rvillareal

U.S. Economy at Yearend and the Year Ahead:

The Macroeconomic Backdrop

–         Q42013 GDP—First Report and Almost the Last for the Year

• Renewed Growth?  Where and For Real?  Sustainable?
• Focus on the Private Sector—Fiscal Drag Less, But Remains
• Messages from the Data[private]

–         2014—Leaving the “L” (with an uptilt)?

• 5 Pillars for the “Basic Prospect”—Renewed U.S. Growth; Japan Back-in-the-Game; China No Worse; Europe Turns; Easy Monetary Policy Sustained
• Basic Prospect (Odds 3-in-4)—Main Parameters: Economic Growth, Inflation, Jobs and Unemployment; Profits
• Risk Alternatives

–        Delayed “Takeoff” (1-in-5)

–        New Downside Macro Risk—“EMG Trouble” (1‑in-20)

–         Macro Themes

• As the Consumer Goes So Goes the U.S. Economy—Leaving the “Rut?”
• “Tight Fiscal-Easy Money” Policy Mix
• “Fed” Return to “Normalcy”
• Renewed Profits Growth and High Margins “Forever”

–         Stock Market Prospects and 2014 “Targets;” Interest Rates; the U.S. Dollar

–         Strategic Broad Asset Allocation—Stocks Still the Asset of Choice?

REPLAY – GDP Conference Call Jan 2014[/private]