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Category: Economic & Policy Analysis
REPLAY | GDP Conference Call – October 2024
The Pre-Election ’24 Economy—Q3 GDP First Report (Adv.), Rest of 2024 and Beyond The Fed and Markets Much data and Events, especially Election ’24 (Nov. 5) and a Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting (Nov. 7-8) are read more
REPLAY Monthly | Employment Conference Call | The “Great American Jobs” Machine—“Pump” for the Economy, Inflation, Fed “No Rate Cuts,” – 5/3/24
The “Great American Jobs” Machine—“Pump” for the Economy, Inflation, Fed “No Rate Cuts,” and Markets and Work-at-Home Factors?
REPLAY| Monthly | Employment Conference Call | The Surprising Strength of the Labor Market—Still? The Summer Jobs Market – 8/4/23
[private] [/private] The Surprising Strength of the Labor Market—Still? The Summer Jobs Market Labor Market (July)—Still Surprisingly Strong? Softening?—The Data Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls, Cos.); Persons Working and Looking (Hh. Survey); Supply—Labor Force, Participation Rate, Employment/Population read more
REPLAY| Monthly | GDP Conference Call | How Goes the Economy? Where is the “Recession?” – 4/27/23
[private] [/private] How Goes the Economy? Where is the “Recession?” First Report on Q1 GDP—U.S. Economy History—Growth Pickup? Stable? Diminishing? What Can We Learn From Q1 GDP? No Recession! Strengths, Weaknesses and Role of read more
Economic Studies Series | “External Shocks,” the Business Cycle and Current Prospects “Sticky-High” Inflation, Policy Errors, and “Financial Disarray”
[private] [/private] The Program today is titled “Where Do We Go? A Compass to Understand the Economy.” Let me start then, with remarks on several questions. 1) Where Are We?—“External Shocks,” the Business Cycle and read more
REPAY | DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | How Long Will the “Good Times Roll” in the Labor Market? March Labor Market – 4/7/23
[private] REPAY | DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | How Long Will the “Good Times Roll” in the Labor Market? March Labor Market [/private] Employment Report (Mar.)—Weak? Stable? Strong? Superstrong? Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls, read more
DE | REPLAY | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Still Beyond Full Employment? The Labor Market in February – 3/10/23
[private] [/private] A “Supertight” Labor Market, the lowest unemployment rate in 54 years that is well below conventional measures of full employment—“Good News” for the economy, people and families but “Bad News” for the Federal read more
DE | Sinai Economic and Market Perspectives | Holiday Season Cheer?—Or Not? Economy Quite O.K.. – 12/12/22
[private] [/private] Holiday Season Cheer?—Or Not? Economy Quite O.K.. Inflation Downshifting But Still Entrenched High. Fed 2% Mission Continues…But With a Shift. Politics and Geopolitics a Little Better Economy O.K. and Inflation Diminishing Holiday Season read more
REPLAY | Monthly | GDP Conference Call | Where’s the Recession? Slowdown Sure, But Entrenched High Inflation – 10/27/22
[private] [/private] Where’s the Recession? Slowdown SureBut Entrenched High Inflation Q3 U.S. Economy (1st Report)—Ain’t Any Recession Here-and-Now Real GDP Q3 Summary—Strong? Slowdown? Mixed? Recession? What’s Strong, What’s Weak? Motion is “Boomy Expansion” to “Slowdown read more
REPLAY| Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Supertight Labor Market as Key—Giving Way? Wage-Price Spiral? – 10/7/22
[private] [/private] Supertight Labor Market as Key—Giving Way? Wage-Price Spiral? Entrenched High Inflation and the Fed Mission The Markets • Labor Market End-Summer, Early Autumn (Sept.)—Will it Give Way? Just Cooling? Still Super-Tight? o Readings—Nonfarm read more
Research Studies
DE | Sinai Economic and Market Perspectives | Seeds of A Sovereign Debt Crisis Planted – 02/03/21
[private] [/private] Seeds of A Sovereign Debt Crisis Planted Allen Sinai* The U.S. and Global economies have undergone a fiscal/debt revolution of huge import from which there will be no turning away! The main catalysts read more
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