REPLAY | GDP Conference Call – October 2024

Posted October 30, 2024 by rvillareal

The Pre-Election ’24 Economy—Q3 GDP First Report (Adv.), Rest of 2024 and Beyond

The Fed and Markets

Much data and Events, especially Election ’24 (Nov. 5) and a Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting (Nov. 7-8) are on-tap over the next two weeks, with a host of Economic, Inflation and Labor Market data that are financial market-relevant and that could bring considerable volatility to financial markets.

The Economy in Q3 and its Prospect going forward is this Wednesday (Adv. Report on Q3 GDP, Oct. 30); Aggregate Consumption (the Consumer) data for September and the Consumption Price Deflator (PCE and “Core” PCE Ex Food-and-Energy) for September (all Thurs., Oct. 31); and then the all-important report on the October Jobs and Labor Market (Fri., Nov. 1).

Also coming will be the most watched and important measure of Compensation Costs and Labor Productivity, the Employment Cost Index (ECI, Thurs., Oct. 31), important to Price Inflation, Business Costs, Profit Margins, Company Earnings (the S&P500 EPS) and thus the Equity Market.  And, throughout, there will be data that can change or affect estimates on the October Labor Market, including the JOLTS Survey, ADP, and Initial and Continuing Claims.

And, all the while, with only 195 of 505 S&P 500 Companies having reported, there will be company earnings reports with Technology the focus.

This week, there are two Conference Calls, rare, Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. and then the data which follow—focusing Wednesday on the overall Economy.  Friday at 10:30 a.m. will be the initial look at the Q4 Labor Market from the monthly October Employment Report.

The Election ’24 Economy and the Prospect, discussion of the Policies of the Candidates—ex-President Trump and current Vice President Harris, their potential effects, Fed policy, and the financial markets are front-and-center.  On Friday—the Focus is on the start to Q4 with the October Labor Market Report.

Rarely has there been so much data of relevance on such a short-term basis, and with an Election ’24 so very tight for which the data results matter and where the campaign is winding down, very relevant for the Economy, Inflation, and the potential programs of the two candidates, Trump and Harris, potentially bearing, if some or all get enacted, a big question, on the future outlook.

First Report on Q3 Real GDP—Q3 and the Election ’24

Economy Prospects, Fed and the Markets