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REPLAY| Monthly | Employment Conference Call | The Surprising Strength of the Labor Market—Still? The Summer Jobs Market – 8/4/23
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The Surprising Strength of the Labor Market—Still? The Summer Jobs Market
- Labor Market (July)—Still
Surprisingly Strong? Softening?—The Data
- Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls, Cos.); Persons Working and Looking (Hh. Survey); Supply—Labor Force, Participation Rate, Employment/Population Ratio
- Unemployment Rate—A Fully Employed Economy Still
- Wage Costs (Avg. Hrly. Earnings, AHE) and Cost-Push Inflation—There or Not?
- Labor Market and DE Basic Forecast—“Soft Landing” (60% Odds) Still—Macro-Risk Alternatives (Recession, Odds 25%-30%)
- Surprising
Strength of Labor Market—Puzzle to Many—Some Reasons
- Demand-Driven Expansion and Interest Rate “Inelasticity”
- Changing
Structure of Economy and Labor Markets
- “Techno-Centric,” Digitization, AI
- Services More-and-More
- Small Business Formation This Time and Persons Working
- “Loop”—Jobs and Persons Working to Disposable Income to Spending to Jobs and Persons Working
- Fed Policy Outlook
and the Labor Market—Surprisingly Resilient Economy, Falling Inflation,
Essentially Full Employment Fed Themes
- FedThink—How Much More Tightening? Smaller Doses, Spread Out, Higher For Longer
- Fixed Inflation Targeting Moving Toward Flexible Inflation Targeting? Away From 2%?
- Markets
- Still “Bear” Fixed Income and Summer Rally “Bull” Equity Market
- Fed Funds Rate Peak 5-5/8% and Hold Well Into 2024
- 10 Year U.S. Govt. Uneven Movement Toward 4-1/2%
- Strong S&P 500 Op EPS and New, Higher Fair Value Ranges