REPLAY Monthly | Employment Conference Call | The “Great American Jobs” Machine—“Pump” for the Economy, Inflation, Fed “No Rate Cuts,” – 5/3/24

Posted May 6, 2024 by rvillareal

The “Great American Jobs” Machine—“Pump” for the Economy, Inflation,

Fed “No Rate Cuts,” and Markets

• The Great American Jobs Machine—Still Cranking and Pumping?
  • Jobs, the Unemployment Rate, Supply and Demand of Workers (Labor Force and Persons Working), and Comp
  • Strengths and Weaknesses
• What’s Going On?  The “Puzzle” of U.S. Economic Performance
  • Circular Flow of Spending, Production, Jobs, Income, Spending, etc.
  • Technology and Productivity Growth
  • Changing Structure of the Labor Market—Aging Population

and Work-at-Home Factors?

• Demographics and Immigration—An Exogenous Force?
  • Immigration and Jobs
  • “Border” Problem—But Plus For the Economy
• What Next for the Federal Reserve?
  • FOMC Meeting Results—FedThink
  • Rethinking “Neutral”—Nominal and Real Funds and 10-Year Rates
  • Inflation Still Key?  Or Jobs and the Economy
• Financial Markets
  • Fed Policy and Interest Rates
  • Dollar and Gold Inflation and Geopolitical Risk Hedges
  • Equity Market—Earnings, Earnings, Earnings—Fair Value Midpoint and Ranges