DE | REPLAY | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Still Beyond Full Employment? The Labor Market in February – 3/10/23

Posted March 10, 2023 by rvillareal

A “Supertight” Labor Market, the lowest unemployment rate in 54 years that is well below conventional measures of full employment—“Good News” for the economy, people and families but “Bad News” for the Federal Reserve, Fixed Income and Equities—the story of the Labor Market for many months.  How went the Labor Market in February?  Still beyond Full Employment?  Or getting less so with declines in the unemployment rate coming to an end?  Why the Story?

The answers to these questions, perhaps revealed by the Labor Market data, could be decisive for the Fed, monetary policy, and markets.

• Labor Market in February—Still Beyond Full Employment?  Supertight?  Tight But Easing Off?  Mixed?  Weak?
  • Nonfarm Payrolls (Jobs, Company Survey); Supply and Demand of Labor—Unemployment Rate, Persons Finding Work, Persons Looking For Work (Hh. Survey); Wage Inflation (Avg. Hrly. Earnings)
  • Where the Jobs—Strengths, Weaknesses?
  • Labor Market Structure—Biggest, Smallest by Sector, Changing?
  • Wages and Cost-Push Inflation—A Concern
• Labor Market and the Federal Reserve—Implications
  • How Will the Fed Read the Labor Market Data?  FedThink!
  • How Many More Rate Hikes?  “Higher, Faster, Longer”—New Fed Mantra?
• Chair Powell and the Semiannual Outlook Testimony—Takeaways
  • Fed Path Going Forward and Interest Rates—Upside Risk?
  • Inverted Yield Curve—Meaningful or Not
• DE Basic Prospect and Macro Alternative Scenarios—“Soft Landing” (Odds 60%); Recession of Sorts (20% Odds)—Fed Forecast (5% Odds); “Boomy Expansion/Financial Disarray” (5% Odds)
• Equity Market
  • Pluses and Minuses
  • Earnings Outlook
  • Multiple Ranges
  • Fair Value and Ranges