REPAY | DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | How Long Will the “Good Times Roll” in the Labor Market? March Labor Market – 4/7/23

Posted April 9, 2023 by rvillareal

• Employment Report (Mar.)—Weak?  Stable?  Strong?  Superstrong?
  • Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls, Company Hiring); Persons Working (Hh. Survey, Individuals Working); Unemployment Rate (Hh. Survey)—Labor Market Demand vs. Supply
  • Strengths and Weaknesses
  • Balance Emerging in What Has Been an Unbalanced Labor Market?
• Wage Costs and Price Inflation
  • Avg. Hrly. Earngs. (AHE)
  • Income Underlying Consumption and Costs in Inflation
• Basic Prospect “Soft Landing” (Odds 55%) and Macro Scenario Alternatives (“Recession—Mild or Deep” (Odds 35%); Fed “Growth Recession” (Odds 10%)
• “Financial Disarray,” the “Financial Factor” in the Business Cycle, and Recession Risks
• Fed Policy Prospects—“Sticky-High” Inflation and Bank Credit Tightening

A Fed Tradeoff

• One More Hike—25 bps in May or June
  • “Terminal” Rate 5-1/8%; Fed Hold Rest of 2023 Into 2024
• Financial Markets
  • Interest Rates—Stable Near-Term
  • U.S. Dollar—Fundamentals Turn Negative
  • Equity Market—Fair Value and Fair Value Ranges