REPLAY| Monthly | GDP Conference Call | How Goes the Economy? Where is the “Recession?” – 4/27/23

Posted April 27, 2023 by rvillareal

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How Goes the Economy?  Where is the “Recession?”
 

• First Report on Q1 GDP—U.S. Economy
  • History—Growth Pickup?  Stable?  Diminishing?
  • What Can We Learn From Q1 GDP?
  • No Recession!
  • Strengths, Weaknesses and Role of Each in the Economy
  • Momentum Entering Q2—The High Frequency Indicators
  • Inflation—Diminishing?  Sticky Downward?
• Why No Recession Yet?  35% Risk
  • Rising Interest Rates?  Not Enough!
  • Rising Interest Rates + “Financial Factor”—Not Enough But a Risk
  • Rising Interest Rates and Sector Balance Sheets—Financial Fragility?
  • “Shocks”—Political and Geopolitical—Debt Ceiling Conflict
  • Policy Errors—Fed and Fiscal
  • Labor Market “Boom” and Full Employment
• If “Recession” When?
• Fed and Interest Rates
  • 25 bps. May 3—Pause—“Tight Money”
  • No Pivot
• Equity Market—Latest Earnings, S&P 500 Op EPS—Point Fair Value—Higher But Valuations Still High