» REPLAY| Monthly | GDP Conference Call | How Goes the Economy? Where is the “Recession?” – 4/27/23 Decision Economics

REPLAY| Monthly | GDP Conference Call | How Goes the Economy? Where is the “Recession?” – 4/27/23

Posted April 27, 2023 by rvillareal

REPLAY GDP Conference Call April 2023

How Goes the Economy?  Where is the “Recession?”
 

  • First Report on Q1 GDP—U.S. Economy
    • History—Growth Pickup?  Stable?  Diminishing?
    • What Can We Learn From Q1 GDP?
    • No Recession!
    • Strengths, Weaknesses and Role of Each in the Economy
    • Momentum Entering Q2—The High Frequency Indicators
    • Inflation—Diminishing?  Sticky Downward?
  • Why No Recession Yet?  35% Risk
    • Rising Interest Rates?  Not Enough!
    • Rising Interest Rates + “Financial Factor”—Not Enough But a Risk
    • Rising Interest Rates and Sector Balance Sheets—Financial Fragility?
    • “Shocks”—Political and Geopolitical—Debt Ceiling Conflict
    • Policy Errors—Fed and Fiscal
    • Labor Market “Boom” and Full Employment
  • If “Recession” When?
  • Fed and Interest Rates
    • 25 bps. May 3—Pause—“Tight Money”
    • No Pivot
  • Equity Market—Latest Earnings, S&P 500 Op EPS—Point Fair Value—Higher But Valuations Still High