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REPLAY| Monthly | GDP Conference Call | How Goes the Economy? Where is the “Recession?” – 4/27/23
How Goes the Economy? Where is the
Report on Q1 GDP—U.S. Economy
- History—Growth Pickup? Stable? Diminishing?
- What Can We Learn From Q1 GDP?
- No Recession!
- Strengths, Weaknesses and Role of Each in the Economy
- Momentum Entering Q2—The High Frequency Indicators
- Inflation—Diminishing? Sticky Downward?
- Why No
Recession Yet? 35% Risk
- Rising Interest Rates? Not Enough!
- Rising Interest Rates + “Financial Factor”—Not Enough But a Risk
- Rising Interest Rates and Sector Balance Sheets—Financial Fragility?
- “Shocks”—Political and Geopolitical—Debt Ceiling Conflict
- Policy Errors—Fed and Fiscal
- Labor Market “Boom” and Full Employment
- If “Recession” When?
- Fed and
- 25 bps. May 3—Pause—“Tight Money”
- No Pivot
- Equity Market—Latest Earnings, S&P 500 Op EPS—Point Fair Value—Higher But Valuations Still High