REPLAY – Sinai’s GDP Conference Call – 4/29/15

Posted April 29, 2015 by rvillareal

The Economy and the Prospect—Emerging From Another Slowdown?
– First Quarter Report—What’s Strong; What’s Weak?

• Consumption—The “Engine” and the Fundamentals
•  CapEx—When?
•  Exports—How Much Damage?
•  Inflation—Staying Low?
•  U.S. Business Cycle—Alive and Well

– Q2, Beyond, and the Alternative Risk Scenarios

• “Basic Prospect” Storyline (Odds 70%) and Assumptions
•  Slow Growth Disappointment (Odds 10%)
• Upside Surprises—Delayed Global Upturn (10%) Inflation Surprises (10%)—High and Low Possibilities

– S&P 500 Profits—Earnings Growth Slowdown and Pickup?

•  S&P 500 Operating EPS—Q1 Track and Forecasts
•  “Growth” Effect on Earnings
•  “Dollar” Effect on Earnings
•  S&P 500 Fair Value Possibilities

– Fed Policy Prospect and Scenario

•  The “Plan,” the Forecasts, Scenario, and Assumptions
• DE Scenario
• Interest Rate Prospects
•  Dollar—Strong Fundamentals, Directional Views, Investment Implications

REPLAY – GDP Calll April 2015 [/private]