REPLAY | GDP Conference Call – July 2023

Posted July 28, 2023 by rvillareal

Economy (2nd Qtr.) and Beyond—Scent of “Soft Landing” Stronger? Sneaky Intellectual Property Products (IPP)—Inflation and the Fed Prospect

• Economy (Adv. Report Q2)—Still Expanding?
  • Real GDP and Price Inflation
  • Strengths and Weaknesses—Consumption a Key (71% of Real GDP)
  • What Else?  The Sneaky Growth of Intellectual Property Products (IPP)
• Price Inflation—Near-Term, Past Year (Fed Relevant), Going Forward
• DE Basic Prospect Remains “Soft-Landing” (Odds 60%) and Macro Risk Alternatives
  • “Recession” (Odds 30%)
  • Fed Forecast—“Growth Recession” (Odds 10%)
• FOMC Meeting (July 25-26); Powell Press Conference; Fed Prospect
  • Somewhat Hawkish Meeting and Conference
  • Dosage Down; Any Increases Spread-Out Now; Higher For Longer
  • September FOMC Meeting and Beyond
  • Moving Away From “Fixed Inflation Rate” Targeting Toward More of a “Flexible Inflation Targeting” Approach?
• Financial Markets’ Implications and Prospects
  • Interest Rates-Still a “Bear” Market
  • Stock Market—“Soft Equity Bull Market”—Fair Value and Ranges Moving Higher