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REPLAY | GDP Conference Call – July 2023
Economy (2nd Qtr.) and Beyond—Scent of “Soft Landing” Stronger? Sneaky Intellectual Property Products (IPP)—Inflation and the Fed Prospect
- Economy (Adv.
Report Q2)—Still Expanding?
- Real GDP and Price Inflation
- Strengths and Weaknesses—Consumption a Key (71% of Real GDP)
- What Else? The Sneaky Growth of Intellectual Property Products (IPP)
- Price Inflation—Near-Term, Past Year (Fed Relevant), Going Forward
- DE Basic Prospect
Remains “Soft-Landing” (Odds 60%) and Macro Risk Alternatives
- “Recession” (Odds 30%)
- Fed Forecast—“Growth Recession” (Odds 10%)
- FOMC Meeting
(July 25-26); Powell Press Conference; Fed Prospect
- Somewhat Hawkish Meeting and Conference
- Dosage Down; Any Increases Spread-Out Now; Higher For Longer
- September FOMC Meeting and Beyond
- Moving Away From “Fixed Inflation Rate” Targeting Toward More of a “Flexible Inflation Targeting” Approach?
- Financial Markets’
Implications and Prospects
- Interest Rates-Still a “Bear” Market
- Stock Market—“Soft Equity Bull Market”—Fair Value and Ranges Moving Higher