REPLAY | GDP Conference Call | Too Good to Be True? 2024 Economy, Policy, Markets, Risks – 1/25/24

Posted January 27, 2024 by rvillareal

Too Good to Be True?  2024 Economy, Policy, Markets, Risks

• Q4 GDP Report, Year 2023, and Launch into Election Year 2024
  • Q4 GDP Solid or Weak?
  • Year in Review—Strengths and Weaknesses
  • Why So Surprising to So Many?  Hypothesis—The T (technology) and a Productivity Wave
• Early Look—2024 Economy, Policies and Markets—Too Good to Be True?
  • DE “Baseline” Forecast (Odds 60%)—Growth, Inflation, Labor Market, Earnings Parameters
  • Macro Alternatives—“Recession” (Odds, 25%); Fed View—Growth, But Much Weaker (Odds 10%); “Boomy” (Odds 5%)
• Monetary Policy and Interest Rates—An Early Look
  • Reductions Later than Consensus—No Hurry by Fed
  • Short- and Long-Term Interest Rate Prospects
• Risks—Inflation Pickup, Washington and the Election, Geopolitical
• New “Bull” Equity Market Since Autumn
  • Earnings Prospect (S&P Op. EPS)
  • Multiples and Interest Rates
  • “Fair Value” Range (Current) 4500 to 5100; Midpoint 4800; Rising Through the Year
• Election 2024 and Aftermath?