» China: Soft-Landing or Recession-bound? (II) Decision Economics

China: Soft-Landing or Recession-bound? (II)

Posted May 1, 2012 by CLeahey


  • China’s PMIs continue to suggest a modest but seemingly persistent improvement in manufacturing-sector-managers’ view of economic conditions.   The trend adds to the likelihood of our baseline soft-landing scenario, but the latter must not be viewed as certain or even imminent yet.  As we have noted in previous notes, some easing of the current policy stance seems to be needed.   The policy change would have to include a measure of easing on the monetary side, which recent data suggest has just begun to occur, but only at a very modest pace.

5-1-12–EMG INDICATORS AND INSIGHTS _China’s PMIs_[/private][/private]