Claims: Improvement into June

Posted June 4, 2015 by rvillareal

[private]Initial claims fall 8,000, to 276,000 in the week ending May 30 (Consensus: -7,000, to 275,000; DE: -2,000), a better-than-expected result that keeps perceptions of an improving labor market intact though the second week of payroll June. No special factors impacted the result, though the week did cover the Memorial Day holiday.

The 4-week average rises by 3,000 to 275,000, now below 280,000 for five weeks.

Continuing claims fall 30,000 in the first of four weeks in payroll June, continuing along a very favorable trend after some halting performance early in the year. The cumulative May payroll month drop is revised a bit lower to -30,000, after -157,000 in April.

Historically-low levels persist on both claims measures.

Implications for tomorrow’s jobs report are limited, the more important takeaway that data remain favorable for June performance. DE expects a slightly weaker than consensus June nonfarm payroll result, albeit one that should continue to to reveal a labor market advancing on full employment.

by: Sr. Economist, New York, +1 212 884 9447, ahusby@decisioneconomicsinc.com [/private]