DE | Quarterly | GDP Conference Call | The Economy in Late 2019, Entering 2020, and Beyond – 1/30/20

Posted January 30, 2020 by rvillareal

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The Economy in Late 2019, Entering 2020, and Beyond

• Q4 GDP (Adv.)—Economy After the Q2, Q3 Slowdown
• Momentum? Up, Down, Sideways
  • Strengths and Weaknesses—Where Strong, Sustainable? Where Weak, Continuing?
• “Basic Prospect” (70% Odds) Story—Growth, Inflation, Unemployment Rate, Profits—How Long?
  • Consumer Solid?
  • Housing and Residential Construction
• Government—Federal, State and Local
• Manufacturing vs. Services
• Business and Capex
• Non-U.S.—Turning On in 2020?
  • Policy Settings—Monetary Ease, Fiscal Stimulus, Trade
• Macro Risk Alternative Scenarios
  • “Disappointing Growth” (20% Odds, Down from 25%)
  • “Boom” (5% Odds, Up from 0%)
  • “Recession” (0% Odds, Down from 5%, Previously 10%)
  • “Shocks” (5% Odds, Including the Coronavirus)
• Fixed Income
  • FOMC Meeting (Jan. 28-29): Results and Messages
  • Interest Rate Prospects
• Equity Markets
  • Q4 Profits Track To-Date
  • Fair Value at 3260; Upside 3400; 2900 (Downside on a Correction)
• Asset Allocation Implications