DE | Weekly | Global Markets | Snapping Back Sooner? – 03/03/21

Posted March 3, 2021 by 150WSTCM

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Snapping Back Sooner?

Allen Sinai

Snap Back!

A wide range of recent data and what looks to be forthcoming are singing a song of “Stronger Sooner” and no “Double-Dip” Recession for the U.S. Economy.

Surprising strength sooner than thought possible is showing up in: 1) very recent high-frequency indicator data; 2) the latest DE Q1 Real GDP Growth Track; 3) stunning Q4 company earnings results relative to expectations and absolutely; 4) rising consumer sentiment and consumer spending as Pandemic numbers improve, hospitalizations decrease, Reopenings occur again, and more-and-more good news on vaccines in the “Year of the Vaccines” come front-and-center.

Outside the U.S., China and Asia continue to gain momentum, China having now exited the Lunar New Year Holiday and soft data during it, but on the latest data forecasted by DE to grow between 7% and 7-1/2%, Q4-over-Q4, in 2021, up from 6-1/2% last year, and a huge turnaround from the decline in 2019-20. U.S. companies with hefty sales in China, the U.S. and Southeast Asia will benefit, many in Tech., and many consumer-based.

Resiliency of the U.S. Economy and a greater-than-expected rebound from the deadly Coronavirus Shock of 2020 have been the pattern since the Recovery began last May and the New Equity Bull Market just prior.

There is really only one major dark cloud on an improving Main St. prospect, a really big cloud, however; a still weak Labor Market and “Army of Unemployed”—some 13 million persons not back to work yet after the collapse and huge downturn of 2020, a still way too high Unemployment Rate, currently 6.3%, preventing a return soon to where the economy was before the Coronavirus Shock a year ago.

This “Army” is comprised of 8.7 million persons still not back to work after nine months of rising employment and a huge 4.3 million decline over that time in the Labor Force.

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