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Is an Export-Led Recession Coming?
- Despite a firming up of a number of economic reports, such as home prices, the most recent ISM and employment data are troubling, as they imply a potentially large slowdown, if not a recession, in exports.
- [private]While the official trade data has slowed dramatically, they have not collapsed, as implied by the ISM export orders component this year.
- DE continues to expect a sluggish growth story as reduced export demand from the Eurozone double dip and the EM slowdown are at least partially offset by a further improvement in housing and related sectors.
- Still, theUSeconomy is quite vulnerable on the downside, even before the dreaded “fiscal cliff” kicks in early next year. export_recession_coming_081212[/private]