Prospects: UK: Likely to Vote to Remain in the EU

Posted May 24, 2016 by rvillareal

Summary Highlights

• Even though headline opinion polls suggest the looming EU referendum may still be a close call, a closer examination, alongside where the weight of money is going in terms of what bookmakers are offering, backs up the long-held DE assertion that the UK will vote to remain in the EU on June 23.
• It is not surprising that economists are split on the issue, albeit with majority of these so-called experts favoring the ‘remain’ arguments. From the DE perspective, the ‘remain’ camp has won the economics arguments very clearly, supported by the research findings from the likes of the IMF, OECD and the UK Treasury.
• This makes it all the more understandable that politics and not economics has and will continue to dominate the referendum debate. This emphasis on politics and non-economic issues is all the more the case as the Brexit camp has no picture to present to voters of what a UK outside of the EU would look like.   Instead, the Brexit camp has also been warning of dire consequences, but on non-economic issues, in particular immigration and a lack of sovereignty.
• Regardless, if the UK votes to leave a series of adverse consequences will unfold, ranging from the threat of recession, UK government upheaval and financial market turmoil.  This could persuade the EU to make fresh concessions to the UK in the hope that this may make a fresh referendum winnable in the following 12 months.

[private]Prospect_MAY 2016–AW[/private]