» REPLAY |DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call – 3/6/20 Decision Economics

REPLAY |DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call – 3/6/20

Posted March 6, 2020 by rvillareal



The “Coronavirus”, Jobs and the Economy
Recession Risks on the “Shock”

  • February Labor Market—“Coronavirus Shock” and Any Workers Falling?
    • Weak, Stable, Surprising?
    • Nonfarm Payrolls; Employment and Unemployment; Wage Cost Inflation
    • Basic Stats and Signs of Non-U.S. Related Cutbacks in U.S. Jobs—Key to Watch
  • “Coronavirus Shock” and Shocks in General—Analytics and Empirics
  • “Virus” Global Economy Weaknesses—Where and What?
    • Dimensions
    • Supply-Side and Demand-Side Impacts and Effects of the “Coronavirus Shock”
    • “Shocks” as a Source of Ends of Expansions
  • DE Macro Scenario and “What Ifs?”
    • “Basic Prospect” and Changes (Odds 55%, Down From 70%)
    • “Disappointing Growth” (Odds 25%, Unch.)
    • “Recession” (Odds 20%, Up From 0%)
  • Policy Responses—Public Health, Medical Technology, Illness Path and “Burnout” Patterns
    • Monetary Policies—Fed Ease and Also Elsewhere
    • Fiscal and Other
  • Equity Market—Correction?; Bear Market?; Return to Equity Bull Market?
    • Earnings Effects and “What Ifs”
    • Fair Value and Fair Value Ranges
  • Fixed Income—New Rate Lows—Sustainable?
  • Asset Allocations—Tactical and Strategic