REPLAY |DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call – 3/6/20

Posted March 6, 2020 by rvillareal

The “Coronavirus”, Jobs and the Economy
Recession Risks on the “Shock”

• February Labor Market—“Coronavirus Shock” and Any Workers Falling?
  • Weak, Stable, Surprising?
  • Nonfarm Payrolls; Employment and Unemployment; Wage Cost Inflation
  • Basic Stats and Signs of Non-U.S. Related Cutbacks in U.S. Jobs—Key to Watch
• “Coronavirus Shock” and Shocks in General—Analytics and Empirics
• “Virus” Global Economy Weaknesses—Where and What?
  • Dimensions
  • Supply-Side and Demand-Side Impacts and Effects of the “Coronavirus Shock”
  • “Shocks” as a Source of Ends of Expansions
• DE Macro Scenario and “What Ifs?”
  • “Basic Prospect” and Changes (Odds 55%, Down From 70%)
  • “Disappointing Growth” (Odds 25%, Unch.)
  • “Recession” (Odds 20%, Up From 0%)
• Policy Responses—Public Health, Medical Technology, Illness Path and “Burnout” Patterns
  • Monetary Policies—Fed Ease and Also Elsewhere
  • Fiscal and Other
• Equity Market—Correction?; Bear Market?; Return to Equity Bull Market?
  • Earnings Effects and “What Ifs”
  • Fair Value and Fair Value Ranges
• Fixed Income—New Rate Lows—Sustainable?
• Asset Allocations—Tactical and Strategic