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REPLAY |DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Beyond Full Employment? April Labor Market and the Inflationary Process.- 5/6/22
Labor Market in April, Economy and Inflation, the Fed
• Labor Market Still Super Tight? How Inflationary?
• Jobs; Persons Working and the Unemployment Rate; Wage Inflation
• Why Strong? “Boomy Expansion” the Driver; Labor Supply Lagging; Jobs Openings, Mismatch of Skills and Structural Changes in the Labor Market
Labor Market and the Inflationary Process
DE Basic Prospect “Boomy Expansion” (Odds 65%; unch.); “Boom-Recession” (Odds 10%, unch.); “Hard Landing” (Odds 10%); “Soft Landing” (Odds 15%)
Inflation Peaking? But High Inflation “Entrenchment”
• Wage Inflation Cost-Push?
• Other Cost-Push Factors
• Expected Inflation?
The Fed, FOMC Meeting Results, and “Soft Landing” Goal
• Provisional Paths for Policy Funds Rate and QT
• Fed Messages—Accelerating Inflation a “No-No”
• Fed Messages—Inflation Public Enemy #1 and Soft Landing Possibilities
• “Bear” Fixed Income Market—On Average, Interest Rates Rising as Far as Can See
• Dollar Strength on Relative Interest Rates
• Equity Market—Fair Value Ranges and Risks—Still “Correction” in a “Bull” Equity Market?