REPLAY |DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Economic Tsunami and the Labor Market—Labor Market, Consumption and the Economy – 5/8/20

Posted May 8, 2020 by rvillareal

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Economic Tsunami and the Labor Market—
Labor Market, Consumption and the Economy

Sequence of Events to Monitor—

    – Coronavirus Shock—Sequence and Status
    – Public Health Reactions and Shutdowns—The New Element
    – Job Losses, Unemployment, Income Shock, and the Economy
    – Monetary and Fiscal Policies—Responses and Lags
    – Virus Evolution and Reopenings
    – Labor Market the Channel and Key for the Future

– Labor Market and Economy Implications

• Nonfarm Payroll Jobs—Layoffs, Furloughs, Firings (Establishment Survey)
• Whys and Wherefores
• Unemployment Rate—Persons Looking for Jobs (Labor Force Supply) and Finding or Not Finding Work (Demand)
• April the Worst? What Next?

– The Economy—A “V”; a “U”; “L” or “ ‘L’ with Uptilt”; a “W”?

– The Recession/Depression—Transitory or Permanent?

• The “ ‘L’ with an Uptilt”—Basic DE Prospect (Odds 50%)
• The “V” (Odds 25%)
• The “U” (Odds 30%)
• Recession/Depression with Slow Exit (Odds 80%)

– Growth, Unemployment, Inflation and Profits (The Numerical Forecasts)

– Monetary and Fiscal Policy Responses

• Public Health and Now Reopenings Risks
• Monetary Policy—Quickest, Biggest, Finessing the Errors of 2007-09
  • Zero Interest Rates Forever?
  • Federal Reserve the Real “Lender of last Resort”—The Bank for Everyone and Everything Levered by the U.S. Treasury
• Fiscal Support—Biggest Ever
• Lags are Variable and Can Be Long

–  Profits Possibilities—A Huge Range
–  Markets—Interest Rates, Equity Market Fair Value Ranges, Currencies