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REPLAY | DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Explosive Upturn?—Now the Jobs Market? – 5/7/21
Explosive Upturn?—Now the Jobs Market?
— Labor Market at Q2 Start—Super Strong; Very Strong; Strong; Mixed; Weak
• Data—Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls); Persons Working (Household Survey); Unemployment Rate and the Labor Supply; Wage Cost Inflation
• Strengths and Weaknesses by Sector—Goods-Producing, Services Catching-Up?
• Unemployed—Still an “Army of Unemployed” Not Back?
— Economy’s Explosive Upturn and Jobs—Jobs and the Economy
• DE Basic Prospect (75% Odds)—Very Strong Expansion—Main Dimensions
• “Boom” Macro Alternative Scenario (10% Odds)
• Federal Reserve and Consensus Macro Alternative Scenario (15% Odds)
— Fed and Monetary Policy—How Long Can the Fed Wait to Signal Less Ease?
• Historic Shift in Monetary Policy to be Noted Again—A Big Deal
• DE Fed and Interest Rate Forecasts
— Financial Market Implications—Short- and Long-Term
• S&P500 Upward Earnings Revisions
• Fair Value Ranges