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REPLAY | DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | How Much Weakening? Labor Market in November and the Economy | 01/08/21
How Much Weakening? Labor Market in November
and the Economy
Labor Market in November—How Much Slowing? How Much Weaker?
• Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls); Persons Working (Household Survey); Unemployment Rate (Labor Force and Unemployed)
• Pandemic and the Labor Market
“K” Labor Market—Hiring and Not Hiring
• Hiring—Where and Implications?
• Not Hiring—Where and Implications?
Sticky-High Unemployment Rate and Higher Company Profit Margins
The Fed Chair Powell and Janet Yellen (Full Employment Mavens)
DE “Basic Prospect” and Major Macro Risk Alternative(s)
• Alphabet Letter “‘L’ with an Uptilt at the Bottom” or “Swoosh” (65% Odds) Why This?
• Major Alternative “W” or “Double-Dip” (Odds 15%)
• Working Assumptions—Pandemic Worst Here-and-Now; 2021 “Year of the Vaccine”;
Fiscal Policy Stimulus; Non-U.S. Economies; “Mood of America” and Pentup Demands
Financial Markets Perspectives
• Stock Market—Fair Value and Fair Value Ranges
• Interest Rates—Tending Higher
• U.S. Dollar Soft