REPLAY |DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Labor Market a Big Focus – 11/1/19

Posted November 1, 2019 by rvillareal

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Labor Market a Big Focus

• U.S. Labor Market Entering Q4 A Very Big Deal
  • State of the Labor Market and the Economy Near-Term? Messages
  • Slowing Jobs Growth—“Normal”? More Than “Normal”?
  • Labor Market a “Channel” for “Disappointing Growth” or “Recession”—Big Macro Risk
  • Messages from the Labor Market on Potential for Recession
  • Concern Much Ado About Nothing?
• The Data—October Jobs, Unemployment Rate, Inflation and Profit Margin Indications
  • Nonfarm Payroll Jobs, the Unemployment Rate, Wage Inflation—Results and Interpretation—Weakening? Stable? Strong?
  • Manufacturing Recession Confirmed?
  • Services Sector Still Strong?
• DE “Basic Prospect” and Macro Risk Alternative Scenarios—Changes Off the Employment Report
• Federal Reserve October Meeting
   Results and Guidance
   DE Monetary Policy Prospect
• Financial Markets Prospects
   Interest Rates—Bottoming-Out?
   Equity Bull Market Still On?
   Latest S&P500 Operating Earnings Track and Forecasts—Fair Value and Fair Value Ranges
• Financial Markets: Short- and Longer-Term