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REPLAY | DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Labor Market and Economy Strong?—But Where are Workers and Why? – 6/4/21
Labor Market and Economy Strong?—But Where are Workers and Why?
— May Labor Market—If Strong, How Strong? Mixed? Weak?
• Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls); Persons Finding Work (Household Survey); Unemployment Rate; Wage Inflation
• Where The Jobs Were. Where The Jobs Weren’t.
• Wage Cost Inflation—Catching Up, Or to be a Cost-Price Spiral
— Implications for the Economy
• DE Basic Prospect “Boomlet” (Odds 75%)
• Boom (10% Odds); Downside Risk—Fed and Consensus (15%)
— Are The Workers There? If Not, Why Not?
• “Army of Unemployed” Remains?
• Transitory or Permanent?
• Four Reasons Why Shortages
— Fed Prospect—Signs of Moving Toward Less Accommodation?
— Financial Market Perspectives Short- and Long-Term
• Short-Term—Strong Labor Market is Negative Fixed Income; Longer-Term “Bear” Fixed Income Market
• Equity Bull Market Continues Because of Surprisingly Super-Strong Profits and the Prospect—Inflation a Plus?
— Some Perspectives on This “Moment of History” and Unfolding Shifts in
Policies, Priorities, and Societal Issues—A “New” New Deal