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REPLAY | DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Labor Market and The Economy—In-or-Out of Sync? – 7/2/21
Labor Market and The Economy—In-or-Out of Sync?
— Labor Market in June—Strong? Weak? Mixed? In-Line with the Economy?
• Nonfarm Payrolls (Jobs); Household Survey (Persons) and the Unemployment Rate; Wage Inflation and Signs of Cost-Push
• Still an “Army of Unemployed?”
— The Economy—Much Stronger than the Labor Market
• DE Basic Prospect “Boomlet and Expansion” (Odds 75%, Unch.)—Growth, Inflation, Unemployment, Profits Dimensions
• Macro Risk Alternatives—Fed Forecasts (June 2021) (Odds 10%) Expansion No Boom (10%)
• Why So Many Not Working?
— Inflation Signs From the Labor Market?
• Wage-Cost Inflation and Inflationary Spirals—Some History
• Productivity and Technology an Offset
• Transitory or Permanent Higher Inflation? Case For, Case Against
— Fed Takeaways
• Growth—How Strong? How Long? How Low the Unemployment Rate?
• Full Employment—How Far Away?
• Price Inflation—Fed Guidance to Lag Higher Inflation (New)
— Fed Approach Now Less Accommodation—Definitely In-Process
— DE Fed Scenario—“Hawkish” to Fed Expectation and the Markets
— Financial Markets Perspectives
• Still Bullish Equity Market—Current Fair Value 4350 S&P500—Ranges and Prospects
• Interest Rates—Higher Over Time?