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REPLAY| DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Labor Market (June)—, Reopenings, Rehiring, Recovery? But Now Always the Virus – 7/2/20
Labor
Market (June)—
Reopenings, Rehiring,
Recovery? But Now Always the Virus
The monthly Labor Market Report is perhaps the single most
important data event for tracking the Labor Market, its progress or lack
thereof, the Economy, thus the very uncertain and volatile Economic Prospect
and Macro Risks which now include COVID‑19, Fed policy implications, fiscal
policy, and the coming key Presidential Election.
- June
Labor Market—Jobs Coming Back? Jobs Going Away? What’s Happening?
- Nonfarm Payrolls (Establishment Survey, Jobs); Household Survey (Persons Working); Unemployment Rate—A Key
- Where Rehiring? Where Not?
- A Sticky Unemployment Rate and the Fed Prospect
- Macroeconomy
Prospects—The Real GDP Path
- DE “Basic Prospect” “ ‘L’ With an Uptilt” (Prior to the Labor Market 55% Odds)
- “V” Outcome—Stepping-Up Lately on Recent Activity (30% Odds prior to the Report, up from 25%)
- “W”—A New Macro Scenario Risk (10% Odds)
- “U”—Standard Recession—About 12 Months (5% Odds)
- Wild Card—Coronavirus Shock, the Illness, Second Wave and Prevention—The Major Macro Risk
- Fed
Prospect and Financial Markets’ Perspectives
- A New Bull Equity Market
- Low Interest Rates Forever?
- No Dollar Collapse and Gold