REPLAY| DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Labor Market (June)—, Reopenings, Rehiring, Recovery? But Now Always the Virus – 7/2/20

Posted July 2, 2020 by rvillareal

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Labor Market (June)—
Reopenings, Rehiring, Recovery? But Now Always the Virus

The monthly Labor Market Report is perhaps the single most important data event for tracking the Labor Market, its progress or lack thereof, the Economy, thus the very uncertain and volatile Economic Prospect and Macro Risks which now include COVID‑19, Fed policy implications, fiscal policy, and the coming key Presidential Election. 

• June Labor Market—Jobs Coming Back? Jobs Going Away? What’s Happening?
  • Nonfarm Payrolls (Establishment Survey, Jobs); Household Survey (Persons Working); Unemployment Rate—A Key
  • Where Rehiring? Where Not?
  • A Sticky Unemployment Rate and the Fed Prospect
• Macroeconomy Prospects—The Real GDP Path
  • DE “Basic Prospect” “ ‘L’ With an Uptilt” (Prior to the Labor Market 55% Odds)
  • “V” Outcome—Stepping-Up Lately on Recent Activity (30% Odds prior to the Report, up from 25%)
  • “W”—A New Macro Scenario Risk (10% Odds)
  • “U”—Standard Recession—About 12 Months (5% Odds)
• Wild Card—Coronavirus Shock, the Illness, Second Wave and Prevention—The Major Macro Risk
• Fed Prospect and Financial Markets’ Perspectives
  • A New Bull Equity Market
  • Low Interest Rates Forever?
  • No Dollar Collapse and Gold