REPLAY | DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Labor Market Post-Summer—Employment, Unemployment, the Economy and Inflation – 10/08/21

Posted October 9, 2021 by rvillareal

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Labor Market Post-Summer—Employment, Unemployment, the Economy and Inflation
 

• Labor Market in September—Strong, Mixed, Weak?
  • Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls) the Headline; Unemployment Rate (Persons Working and the Labor Force)
  • How Tight the Labor Market?
  • Hiring, Not Hiring, Working and Not Working, Unfilled Jobs as Lots of Potential Workers Not Back—What Gives?
• DE “Basic Prospect” (70% Odds) and Macro Alternative Risk Scenarios
  • “Basic Prospect”—Expansion—the Parameters Growth, Price Inflation, Unemployment, Earnings
  • “Stagflation” (10% Odds)—Demand-and Supply Shocks Feed this Scenario
  • Expansion and Boom (5%)
  • “Recession” (5%)
• DE Fed Policy Scenario
  • Taper Starts in November Ends in July—$15 Bil./Month
  • Funds Rate Hike in July then Three More
  • Higher Interest Rates but Still Low
• Other Assumptions—”Washington” and the Budget
  • Budget, Debt Ceiling, Traditional and Human Infrastructure Plans
  • What Timeline?
• Financial Markets
  • Equity Bull Market Still—Earnings, Fair Value and Ranges
  • Bear Fixed Income Market—Early Stages—Interest Rate Outlook