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REPLAY | DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Labor Market Post-Summer—Employment, Unemployment, the Economy and Inflation – 10/08/21
Labor Market Post-Summer—Employment, Unemployment, the Economy and Inflation
Market in September—Strong, Mixed, Weak?
- Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls) the Headline; Unemployment Rate (Persons Working and the Labor Force)
- How Tight the Labor Market?
- Hiring, Not Hiring, Working and Not Working, Unfilled Jobs as Lots of Potential Workers Not Back—What Gives?
“Basic Prospect” (70% Odds) and Macro Alternative Risk Scenarios
- “Basic Prospect”—Expansion—the Parameters Growth, Price Inflation, Unemployment, Earnings
- “Stagflation” (10% Odds)—Demand-and Supply Shocks Feed this Scenario
- Expansion and Boom (5%)
- “Recession” (5%)
- DE Fed
- Taper Starts in November Ends in July—$15 Bil./Month
- Funds Rate Hike in July then Three More
- Higher Interest Rates but Still Low
Assumptions—”Washington” and the Budget
- Budget, Debt Ceiling, Traditional and Human Infrastructure Plans
- What Timeline?
- Equity Bull Market Still—Earnings, Fair Value and Ranges
- Bear Fixed Income Market—Early Stages—Interest Rate Outlook