» REPLAY | DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Labor Market Starting Q3—Breaking-Out or Still Sticky-High Unemployment? The Economy, Fed, and Financial Markets – 8/6/21 Decision Economics

REPLAY | DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Labor Market Starting Q3—Breaking-Out or Still Sticky-High Unemployment? The Economy, Fed, and Financial Markets – 8/6/21

Posted August 6, 2021 by Diane Buscemi

Labor Market Starting Q3—Breaking-Out or Still Sticky-High Unemployment?
The Economy, Fed, and Financial Markets

— Labor Market in July—Breaking-Out? Or Still Sticky-High?
• Strong? Weak? Mixed?
• Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls); Unemployment and the Unemployment Rate (Household Survey); Wage Inflation
• “Army of Unemployed” Still? How Many? Why a Sticky-High Unemployment Rate?
— DE “Basic Prospect” (75% Odds, Unch.): Strongest Economy in Decades
• Growth, Inflation and Unemployment (Labor Market)
• Where in the Business Cycle Are We?
NBER and DE Stages
• Fundamentals Very Positive—Factors Underlying the Consumer, Nonfinancial Business, Bank and Nonbank Financial Institutions, Trade and the Government Sector
• “Mood of America”
— Inflation, Profits
• Price Inflation Acceleration: “Transitory” or “Permanent?”
• Labor Market “Touch” Points
— Labor Market Now the Federal Reserve Main Concern Over Price Stability
• Fed Dual Objective—Full Employment and Price Stability—The New Emphasis
• DE Fed Scenario and Prospect
— Financial Markets
• Interest Rates and the Puzzle of the 10-Year Treasury Yield
• Earnings and the P/E Multiple
• S&P500 Fair Value and Fair Value Ranges
— Asset Allocation Implications