REPLAY | DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Spring and Springing-Up? – 4/5/21

Posted April 5, 2021 by Diane Buscemi

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Spring and Springing-Up?

— The Labor Market and Economy in March—Spring Awakening?
• Jobs (Establishment Survey); Unemployment Rate (Persons, HH. Survey); Labor Force Dynamics
• The “K” Labor Market and Consumption—State of Play
• Reopenings; The American Rescue Act; Pentup Demands All Pluses
— Economy and the “Basic Prospect” (70% Odds; Up From 65%); “Double-Dip” Recession (Near 0% Odds; Down From 15%); Fed Scenario (20%, New); Expansion and “Boom” (10%, Up From 0%)
— Macro Policy—Biggest Stimuli Ever
• Fed to Lag Inflation—Huge, Huge Shift!
• Fiscal Stimulus Prospects—Near $6 Trillion and Counting
• “Easy” Money—“Loose” Fiscal Policy Mix: 1960s, 1980s, and 2000-07?
— “Bear” Fixed Income and “Bull” Equity Markets
• Interest Rate Prospect
• Equity Market Fair Value and Ranges
— Asset Allocation Perspectives