» REPLAY | DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Still Red Hot Labor Market? Or Cooling? – 9/2/2022 Decision Economics

REPLAY | DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Still Red Hot Labor Market? Or Cooling? – 9/2/2022

Posted September 2, 2022 by rvillareal

RPLAY – Employment Conference Call – September 2022

Still Red Hot Labor Market?  Or Cooling?

  • August Labor Market—How Strong?  Weakening?
    • Jobs (Companies, Nonfarm Payrolls)
    • Persons Working and Looking (Labor Force, LFPR)
    • Unemployment Rate (Hh. Survey)—Still 50-Year Low?
  • Labor Market and the Economy—Mixed Messages?
    • Puzzle of the Difference—“Recession” and Real GDP
    • Super Hot Full Employment Labor Market
  • DE “Basic Prospect” “Soft Landing?”
    • “Soft Landing” Defined—60% Odds
    • “Recession” Odds 30%—Defined and Timing
    • “Growth Recession”—10% Odds—The Fed Scenario
  • Fed Path—Short- and Long-Term—“Don’t Fight the Fed”
    • Funds Rate and Quantitative Tightening (QT)
    • Fed Takes Aim—Chair Powell at J-Hole
  • Washington—Coming Midterms, Fiscal Policy, and the Deficit
  • Financial Markets Prospect—Short- and Long-Term

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