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REPLAY | DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Still Red Hot Labor Market? Or Cooling? – 9/2/2022
Still Red Hot Labor Market? Or Cooling?
Labor Market—How Strong? Weakening?
- Jobs (Companies, Nonfarm Payrolls)
- Persons Working and Looking (Labor Force, LFPR)
- Unemployment Rate (Hh. Survey)—Still 50-Year Low?
Market and the Economy—Mixed Messages?
- Puzzle of the Difference—“Recession” and Real GDP
- Super Hot Full Employment Labor Market
“Basic Prospect” “Soft Landing?”
- “Soft Landing” Defined—60% Odds
- “Recession” Odds 30%—Defined and Timing
- “Growth Recession”—10% Odds—The Fed Scenario
Path—Short- and Long-Term—“Don’t Fight the Fed”
- Funds Rate and Quantitative Tightening (QT)
- Fed Takes Aim—Chair Powell at J-Hole
- Washington—Coming Midterms, Fiscal Policy, and the Deficit
- Financial Markets Prospect—Short- and Long-Term
Some Asset Allocation Perspectives