REPLAY |DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | The Labor Market Post-Summer—Coming Back, Normalizing or Not? – 10/2/20

Posted October 2, 2020 by rvillareal

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The Labor Market Post-Summer—Coming Back, Normalizing or Not?

• U.S. Labor Market (September) Post-Summer—Strong, Stable, or Mixed in the Aftermath of the “Coronavirus Shock”, Economy Collapse, and “Recovery”?
• Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls, Establishment Survey); Employment (Persons Working, Household Survey); Labor Force and the Unemployment Rate (Household Survey); Average Hourly Earnings (Wage and Cost Inflation)
  • Jobs and Employment Status—Where Strong, Where Weak
  • Coming Back?
  • “K” Picture of Division on the “Haves” and “Have-Nots” in the Labor Market
• Slack in the Labor Market—How Much, How Long
  • The Pandemic Unemployed—Temporary or Permanent?
  • Company Hesitancy—Maximizing Shareholder Value (SVM)
• “Basic Prospect”—Big Bounce Up and Sustained, But Uneven, Recovery
  • “L” With an Uptilt or Nike “Swoosh” (Odds 60%)
  • Rest-of-the-World Recoveries—China, Japan, Germany, S. Korea, Eurozone
• Macro Risk Scenario Alternatives
  • “W” or “Double-Dip” (Odds 15%, Up from 10%)—“Dead Cat” Bounce, Fading Into Recession, Then More Stimulus and Recovery
  • “V” (Odds 20%, Down from 30%)
  • “Boom-Bust” (Odds 5%; New Scenario)
• Federal Reserve Guarantee—Steadfast and Supportive—“Ultra” Ultra-Easy Monetary Policy
  • Funds Rate Zero; QE as Needed; the Fed Lending Facilities to the Private Sector
  • Forward Guidance, 2% Average Inflation Target, and Full Employment “Guarantees”
• Election ’20 and the Policy Aftermath—Perspectives Under Several Scenarios
• Bull Equity Market, Interest Rates Low and Stable, Dollar Steady to Weak—Chinese Yuan Strength
  • Earnings—Key Determinants—Fair Value and Ranges
  • Longer-Run?