REPLAY | DE | Monthly | Upcoming Employment Conference Call (Fri.) |Labor Market in February—Still “Hot?” – 3/4/22

Posted March 4, 2022 by rvillareal

Labor Market in February—Still “Hot?”
Economy, Inflation and Ukraine Shock
Fed Policy and the Markets
• Labor Market—“Hot?” “Red Hot?” “Cooling?”
o Nonfarm Payroll Jobs (Companies); Unemployment Rate—Demand/Supply of Persons (Household Survey); Wage Inflation and Price Inflation
o Basic Prospect—Update—“Boomy Expansion” (75% Odds)
o Alternative Possibilities—“Boom-Recession” (10%); Consensus (10%); Fed Forecasts (5%)
• Economy Track Q1, Forecast 2022 and 2023, Now the Russia-Ukraine-West Shock
• Inflation Track Q1 and Going Forward—“Classic” Demand-Pull
o Ukraine Shock and Cost-Push Levers—Crude Oil and Energy; Commodities, Especially Food; Compensation
o Disinflationary Levers—Technology
• Earnings—Q4 2021, 2022 and 2023
o S&P 500 Op. EPS Prospect
o Still Very Strong
o Pace to Diminish
• Federal Reserve Monetary Policy
o Upcoming Meeting and Prospects (Mar. 15-16)
o Powell Testimonies, Mar. 2-3
o DE Fed Policy Scenario Expectation
• Markets—Fixed Income and Stocks
o Interest Rate Prospect—“Bear” Fixed Income
o Equity Market—Correction then Bull Equity Market—Current Fair Value and Fair Value Ranges