REPLAY | DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Where Have All the Workers Gone?The Labor Market, Economy, and Inflation Risk – 11/5/21

Posted November 9, 2021 by rvillareal

Call Outline:

• Labor Market in October—Workers Still Gone?  Strong, Weak, Mixed?
  • More Indicative and Less Seasonality?
  • Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls); Unemployment Rate (Persons Working, HH. Survey); Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR)—Labor Supply; Demand for Labor (Persons Working)
• Wage Inflation—A Risk for Higher Price Inflation—“Accelerant”
  • Wage Inflation (Average Hourly Earnings, (AHE))
  • Wage Costs and Comp an “Accelerant” in History
  • Wage Costs, Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, Margins and Profits
• Where Are The Workers?  Labor Shortages—Jobs Openings vs. Supply of Labor
  • Jobs Openings and Labor Supply (LFPR)
  • Why the Mismatch?  Structural Transformation?
• Economy Outlook and Inflation
  • DE “Basic Forecast”—“Expansion” (75% Odds)
  • Macro Alternatives—Boom-Bust (10%); Fed Prospect (5%); Strong but Less Growth (Consensus) (10%)
• Labor Market—Approaching “Full Employment”?  Federal Reserve Monetary Policy
  • FOMC Meeting—Tilting More to Less Accommodation?
  • DE Fed Scenario
• Financial Markets’ Perspectives
  • Fed and Interest Rate Prospects
  • Earnings, Margins, Fair Value and Fair Value Ranges
• Still Overwhelmingly Strong Overweight Equities; Underweight Fixed Income