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REPLAY | DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Where Have All the Workers Gone?The Labor Market, Economy, and Inflation Risk – 11/5/21
- Labor Market in October—Workers Still Gone? Strong, Weak, Mixed?
- More Indicative and Less Seasonality?
- Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls); Unemployment Rate (Persons Working, HH. Survey); Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR)—Labor Supply; Demand for Labor (Persons Working)
- Wage Inflation—A Risk for Higher Price Inflation—“Accelerant”
- Wage Inflation (Average Hourly Earnings, (AHE))
- Wage Costs and Comp an “Accelerant” in History
- Wage Costs, Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, Margins and Profits
- Where Are The Workers? Labor Shortages—Jobs Openings vs. Supply of Labor
- Jobs Openings and Labor Supply (LFPR)
- Why the Mismatch? Structural Transformation?
- Economy Outlook and Inflation
- DE “Basic Forecast”—“Expansion” (75% Odds)
- Macro Alternatives—Boom-Bust (10%); Fed Prospect (5%); Strong but Less Growth (Consensus) (10%)
- Labor Market—Approaching “Full Employment”? Federal Reserve Monetary Policy
- FOMC Meeting—Tilting More to Less Accommodation?
- DE Fed Scenario
- Financial Markets’ Perspectives
- Fed and Interest Rate Prospects
- Earnings, Margins, Fair Value and Fair Value Ranges
- Still Overwhelmingly Strong Overweight Equities; Underweight Fixed Income