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REPLAY |DE | Monthly | Upcoming Employment Conference Call | Labor Market in January—Next Big Indicator Up – 2/4/22
Labor Market in January—Next Big Indicator Up
Strong and Still “Hot?”…or Not “Hot”?
Labor Market in January—Key to Whether or Not Fed’s “Full Employment” Goal Being Met
• Nonfarm Payrolls (Jobs—Companies); Unemployment Rate (Persons Working, HH. Survey); Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR)
• Wage Costs—Avg. Hrly. Earnings —Cost-Push Inflation? “Spiral” Risks
• Where Strong? Weak? COVID-19 Effects
Full Employment? How Far Now? How Close?
Inflation Process—Classic “Demand-Pull” with Supply-Side Constraints
Fed Policy Implications, Interpretation, DE Fed Scenario Monetary Policy Path
“Boomy Expansion” (Odds 75%)—Key Parameters and Prospects
• Economic Growth and Unemployment
Financial Markets—Interest Rates, Multiples on Forward Earnings, Current Fair Value and Ranges