» REPLAY |DE | Monthly | Upcoming Employment Conference Call | Spring Jobs Market—Still Tight? -Any Slackening? – 6/3/22 Decision Economics

REPLAY |DE | Monthly | Upcoming Employment Conference Call | Spring Jobs Market—Still Tight? -Any Slackening? – 6/3/22

Posted June 3, 2022 by rvillareal

Spring Jobs Market—Still Tight?
Any Slackening?

  • May Jobs, Employment and Unemployment—Still Supertight?  Strong?  Mixed?  Weak?
    • Jobs (Payrolls); Employment (Persons Working and the Labor Force); the Unemployment Rate
    • Beyond Full Employment and Wage Costs (Worker Income But Also Cost-Push Inflation)
    • Still Huge Unfilled Jobs?  For How Long?  Labor Force, Labor Force Participation Rate and Jobs Openings
  • Why a Supertight Labor Market?
    • Demand-Pull—Signs Are Rising Inflation and Falling Unemployment Rate (Phillips Curve Back?)
    • Wage-Price Spiral Risks
  • Economy Basic Prospect “Boomy Expansion” (Odds 65%)
    • “Soft Landings Variants” (Odds 10%)
    • “Hard Landing”—Recession (Odds 20%)
    • “Soft Landing” Fed (Odds 5%)
  • “Inflation Genie Out of the Bottle”—Diminishing but Entrenched
  • Fed Prospect—Braking and Withdrawing the Too Much Easy Money—Federal Funds Rate Path and Quantitative Tightening (QT)
  • Financial Markets Prospects and Perspectives
    • Interest Rates—On Average, Up
    • Equity Market—Still Correction?
    • The Dollar