REPLAY |DE | Monthly | Upcoming Employment Conference Call | Spring Jobs Market—Still Tight? -Any Slackening? – 6/3/22

Posted June 3, 2022 by rvillareal

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Spring Jobs Market—Still Tight?
Any Slackening?

• May Jobs, Employment and Unemployment—Still Supertight?  Strong?  Mixed?  Weak?
  • Jobs (Payrolls); Employment (Persons Working and the Labor Force); the Unemployment Rate
  • Beyond Full Employment and Wage Costs (Worker Income But Also Cost-Push Inflation)
  • Still Huge Unfilled Jobs?  For How Long?  Labor Force, Labor Force Participation Rate and Jobs Openings
• Why a Supertight Labor Market?
  • Demand-Pull—Signs Are Rising Inflation and Falling Unemployment Rate (Phillips Curve Back?)
  • Wage-Price Spiral Risks
• Economy Basic Prospect “Boomy Expansion” (Odds 65%)
  • “Soft Landings Variants” (Odds 10%)
  • “Hard Landing”—Recession (Odds 20%)
  • “Soft Landing” Fed (Odds 5%)
• “Inflation Genie Out of the Bottle”—Diminishing but Entrenched
• Fed Prospect—Braking and Withdrawing the Too Much Easy Money—Federal Funds Rate Path and Quantitative Tightening (QT)
• Financial Markets Prospects and Perspectives
  • Interest Rates—On Average, Up
  • Equity Market—Still Correction?
  • The Dollar