REPLAY | DE | Quarterly | GDP Conference Call | First Report on the Economy for the Second Quarter—Recession, Soft Landing, Transition? – 7/28/22

Posted July 30, 2022 by rvillareal

First Report on the Economy for the Second Quarter—Recession, Soft Landing, Transition?

 Q2 Economy—Rebounding? Recessing? Weak, Solid, Mixed?
• Strengths and Weaknesses—Is the Economy Strong, Weak, Slowing, in Transition?
• The Drivers
• The Laggards
 Basic Prospect and Risks—Sustained Expansion with Recession Risks “Soft Landing” (Odds 60%); Recession or Growth Recession (Odds 35%); Fed Forecast (Big Slowdown, Odds 5%)
• Recession Indications and Indicators-to-Watch—Employment a Key
• Slowdown For Sure, Ongoing—Odds 100%
• “Transition” Scenarios—Treasury Secy. Yellen Consensus
• Consensus
 Inflation—Accelerating or Decelerating? Entrenched High?
• GDP Deflator and Consumption Deflator for Q2
• Where is Inflation Concentrated?
• Inflation Process In-Train—Its Anatomy and Lags by Stages
• Signs of Disinflation Lead Actual Disinflation—Long Lags?
 Fed Meeting, Prospects and Interest Rates
• Fed Statement and Powell Press Conference
• Inflation the Problem with Rising Unemployment Now Acceptable
• Fed Risk—Upside, Downside, Pause?
• Funds Rate Path, DE Short- and Long-Term Interest Rate Forecasts
 Equity Market—“Bearish” But Really a “Bear” Market?
• Q2 Earnings To-date and Prospects—Weakish But Margins Still High
• Fair Value and Fair Value Ranges—S&P 500