REPLAY| DE | Quarterly | GDP Conference Call | “Soft Landing” or “Recession?” Which?Q4 2022, 2022 and 2023 Prospect – 1/26/23

Posted January 27, 2023 by rvillareal

“Soft Landing” or “Recession?” Which?
Q4 2022, 2022 and 2023 Prospect

• Where Was/Is the Recession?
o Q4 2022 Adv. Report on Real GDP and Year 2022
o Q4 and 2023
o Strengths, Weaknesses
• 2023 U.S. Economic Outlook
o DE Basic Prospect “Soft Landing” (Odds 65%, Higher)—Consumer, Labor Market, Government Sector
o Reasons—Strengths, Weaknesses, Global Economy, China Revival
o “Recession” (Odds 25%, Down)—Not Imminent, If One “Mild” or “Deep?”
•
o Fed—“Growth Recession” (Odds 10%)
• Business Cycle Message—Higher Interest Rates Alone Typically Don’t Bring Recession—Is—
o “Financial Disarray” A Part
o Credit or Collateral Events
o Failure Fallout
o High Unemployment
• Inflation—Diminishing But to Where?
o “Sticky” High, “Entrenched” High
o Peaks Past
o Inflation Dynamics Process
o 4% to 5% to 2022; 3% to 4% 2023
• “Fed Think”
o Federal Funds Rate Hikes Over Some Time in 2023
o “Real” Interest Rates and Restrictive Monetary Policy
o Fed Funds and Interest Rates
• Financial Markets—Equities, the Dollar
o S&P 500 EPS Monitoring Track
o Q4 and 2023 Prospect
• Equity Market—Fair Value and Ranges
o Higher P/E Multiple
o Cash & Equivalent Alternative Significant