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REPLAY | DE | Quarterly | GDP Conference Call | Spring Has Sprung! 1st Report on Q1 Real GDP and a Look Ahead – 4/29/21
Spring Has Sprung! 1st Report on Q1 Real GDP and a Look Ahead
— Q1 Real GDP—Surprisingly Strong Snap Up?
• Economy and Its Growth Surge
• Why the Strong Upturn? Will it Continue?
• Strengths and Weaknesses
• Inflation Risk and Prospect
— DE “Basic Prospect” (Odds 75%)
• DE Macro Risk Alternatives—Expansion/Boom (Odds 10%); Transitory Boom (Odds 15%)
• Historical Parallels? 1960s and 1980s
— Fed FOMC Meeting
• Hawkish Tone or Dovish?
• Fed Expectations and Objectives
• Forward Guidance Break with History
— Fiscal Stimulus—Past and Coming
• $5.9 Trillion to-Date
• $2.25 Trillion American Jobs Plan
• What Possibly Next?
— Financing the Fiscal Deficit—Early Perspectives on Tax Increases
— Concluding Perspective(s), Interest Rates and Equity Market Fair Values