[REPLAY] DE | Quarterly | GDP Conference Call | Strong Close to 2021—Slow Beginning But Strong 2022 – 1/27/2022

Posted January 27, 2022 by rvillareal

Strong Close to 2021—Slow Beginning But Strong 2022

(Adv. Q4 GDP and 2022 Prospect)

 Q4 and 2021 Economy End of Year?—Advance GDP Report
• Growth Momentum Up—Real GDP and Inflation—Weakish Start 2022
• Best 2021 Year in Decades for Economy
• “Transitory” or “Permanent”? DE Basic Prospect (Odds 75%)—“Boomy Expansion”
• Growth, Inflation, Unemployment Rate, Profits—Well Above Trend
 Macro Fundamentals
• Consumer Pentup Demands and Strong Household Financial Conditions
• Business Spending and Strong Financial Conditions
• Still Low Interest Rates but Higher, Ample Flows-of-Funds and Tighter Monetary Policy
• Unprecedented Fiscal Stimulus Still
• Rest-of-the-World Pickup
 Risks and Assumptions
• Inflation Getting Out-of-Hand # 1 Risk
• Geopolitics—Russia and China
• “Washington”—Midterm Politics
• COVID-19 Fading?
• “Boom-Bust” (Odds 5%)—But Need-to-Watch
 FOMC Meeting—Fed Policy and the DE Fed Scenario
• Meeting Results and Interpretation
• Path of Interest Rates and the Fed Balance Sheet
 Financial Markets Perspectives
• Rising Interest Rates and Estimates
• New Equity Market Fair Value Ranges, Correction, Still A Bull Equity Market