» REPLAY | DE | Quarterly | GDP Conference Call | The “Economic Tsunami”—An Initial Q2 Look, Post-Mortem, Look Ahead – 7/30/20 Decision Economics

REPLAY | DE | Quarterly | GDP Conference Call | The “Economic Tsunami”—An Initial Q2 Look, Post-Mortem, Look Ahead – 7/30/20

Posted July 30, 2020 by rvillareal


The “Economic Tsunami”—An Initial Q2 Look, Post-Mortem, Look Ahead
–  Q2 Real GDP—What Happened? Recession? Depression?
• The “Coronavirus Shock” and the Economy
• An Aberrant Shock—Incredibly Rare, Global in Nature
• Some Details of Q2 GDP: Why, Where the Impacts—Economy and Inflation
• The “Shock”—“Transitory” or “Permanent” with “Permanent” Effects
• The Economy—Transitory Cyclical Effects, the Responses, and Implications
–  The “Look Ahead” Scenarios—DE “Basic Prospect” is Still
“L” With an Uptilt (60% Odds); “V” (20% Odds);
“W” (15% Odds); “U” (5% Odds)
–  Policies—Public Health, Monetary, Fiscal—Some Details and Perspectives
–  The Main “Macro Risk”—The Virus!
–  Early Perspectives on the 2020 Election
–  Global Reverberations; Non-U.S. Impacts and Prospects
–  Financial Markets and Prospects
• Fed and Interest Rates—Zero and Continuing
Low
• U.S. Equity Market—Fair Value Remains 3200 with Range 2900 to 3500
• Dollar—Weaker vs. Yen, Euro
• Gold—Strong Overweight