» REPLAY| Employment Conference Call | How Long Can Good Times in the Labor Market Roll? Late Summer Labor Market – 9/1/23 Decision Economics

REPLAY| Employment Conference Call | How Long Can Good Times in the Labor Market Roll? Late Summer Labor Market – 9/1/23

Posted September 1, 2023 by rvillareal

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REPLAY – EMPLOYMENT CONFERENCE CALL SEPTEMBER 2023

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  • Late Summer Employment—Strong?  Moderating?  On the Weak Side?
    • Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls, Overall and Private); Persons Working (Hh. Survey), Looking for Work (Labor Force)); Unemployment Rate—Still Superlow or Rising?
    • Strengths, Weaknesses—Labor Market Puzzles and Possibilities
    • Full Employment Still?
    • Labor Costs (Avg. Hrly. Earns., AHE)—Both Income and a Business Cost
  • Economy Outlook
    • Baseline (“No Recession”, Odds 60%)
    • Alternatives—“Recession,” Odds 25%; Fed Forecast “Below Trend Growth”, (Odds 10%); “Cyclical Reacceleration,” (Odds 5%)
  • Fed and the Monetary Policy Prospect
    • Messages from Jackson Hole
    • On Hold or Higher!—High for a Long Time a Strong Message
  • Financial Markets’ Implications—Short- and Longer-Run Tendencies and Trends
    • “Bearish” Fixed Income Markets Trend
    • “Bullish” U.S. Dollar Tendency
    • “Bullish” but Volatile Equity Market—S&P Point Fair Value Currently 4500; Range 4800 to 4200

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