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REPLAY | Employment Conference Call | Labor Market (Nov.)—Key to the Economy, Inflation, Fed and Markets – 12/2/22
- Labor Market in Nov.—Still Strong or Not? Rebalancing?
- Jobs, Persons Working, Labor Supply
- Wages: Any Cost-Push?
- Where Strong? Where Weak?
- Economy Implications
- Q4 Economy and Beyond—Baseline “Soft Landing” (60%); Recession (25%); Growth Recession (10%); Expansion (5%)
- If a Recession, When?—Mild? Deep?
- Inflation Implications—Entrenched Sticky-High
- Wage Costs—Widespread Everywhere
- Energy Costs—Widespread
- Food—Widespread Inputs
- Expected Inflation—Mixed But Likely Unanchored
- Fed Policy Still a 2% Mission But Important Shift
- Powell Comments and Fed Messaging
- Interest Rate Hikes—Path and Dosage
- Endpoint Unknown But No Pivot
- Long Lags of Monetary Policy Spell Long Period of High Interest Rates
- Financial Markets—Interest Rates, Equities, U.S. Dollar
- Interest Rate Volatility: On Average, Higher
- Equity Market—Earnings and Interest Rates Drivers
– S&P 500 Op EPS Forecast Range
- S&P 500 Fair Value and Ranges
- Dollar No Longer Open-Ended Up