» REPLAY | Employment Conference Call | Labor Market (Nov.)—Key to the Economy, Inflation, Fed and Markets – 12/2/22 Decision Economics

REPLAY | Employment Conference Call | Labor Market (Nov.)—Key to the Economy, Inflation, Fed and Markets – 12/2/22

Posted December 7, 2022 by rvillareal


Replay – Employment Conference Call -December 2022
  • Labor Market in Nov.—Still Strong or Not?  Rebalancing?
    • Jobs, Persons Working, Labor Supply
    • Wages: Any Cost-Push?
    • Where Strong?  Where Weak?
  • Economy Implications
    • Q4 Economy and Beyond—Baseline “Soft Landing” (60%); Recession (25%); Growth Recession (10%); Expansion (5%)
    • If a Recession, When?—Mild?  Deep?
  • Inflation Implications—Entrenched Sticky-High
    • Wage Costs—Widespread Everywhere
    • Energy Costs—Widespread
    • Food—Widespread Inputs
    • Expected Inflation—Mixed But Likely Unanchored
  • Fed Policy Still a 2% Mission But Important Shift
    • Powell Comments and Fed Messaging
    • Interest Rate Hikes—Path and Dosage
    • Endpoint Unknown But No Pivot
    • Long Lags of Monetary Policy Spell Long Period of High Interest Rates
  • Financial Markets—Interest Rates, Equities, U.S. Dollar
    • Interest Rate Volatility: On Average, Higher
    • Equity Market—Earnings and Interest Rates Drivers
      – S&P 500 Op EPS Forecast Range
    • S&P 500 Fair Value and Ranges
    • Dollar No Longer Open-Ended Up