REPLAY – GDP Conference Call – 10/26/18

Posted October 26, 2018 by rvillareal

U.S. Economy—Prosperity Emerges But at Risk?

• • Q3 U.S. Economy and Going Forward
  • First Q3 GDP Report—Strong, Mixed, Fading?
  • Strengths, Weaknesses—Power of Tax Cuts, Restraint of Interest Rates
    • Setting Up for Q4 and Beyond
  • DE “Basic Prospect” and Risks
    • DE Forecast Baseline
    • Jitters
  • Rising Interest Rates—U.S. Then Elsewhere
  • Trade Wars, Tariffs
  • Political, Geopolitical, Coming Midterms
  • Inflation the Most Important Macro “Fundamental” Risk
    • Interest Rates and the Economy Behavior in a Typical Upcycle
      • Tax and Federal Government Spending Fiscal Stimulus This Time—Big Pump Now and in 2019—Demand and Supply-Side Effects
    • Fed Policy in Transition—Path Planned But Less Certain
      • Sustaining and Maintaining Full Employment and Price Stability Now the Goal
      • Transition in Thinking About the “*Stars”—The “Forward Guidance”
        • Full Employment Unemployment Rate (Natural Rate), 2% Price Stability and “Neutral” Interest Rate in Doubt
        • Financial Instability and the Fed
      • Financial Markets Implications—Stocks, Fixed Income, the Dollar—Short-Run and Longer
        • Earnings, Equity Market Fair Value, Ranges and Risks
        • Interest Rate Prospects
        • S. Dollar