» REPLAY – GDP Conference Call – 10/26/18 Decision Economics

REPLAY – GDP Conference Call – 10/26/18

Posted October 26, 2018 by rvillareal

U.S. Economy—Prosperity Emerges But at Risk?

    • Q3 U.S. Economy and Going Forward
    • First Q3 GDP Report—Strong, Mixed, Fading?
    • Strengths, Weaknesses—Power of Tax Cuts, Restraint of Interest Rates
      • Setting Up for Q4 and Beyond
    • DE “Basic Prospect” and Risks
      • DE Forecast Baseline
      • Jitters
    • Rising Interest Rates—U.S. Then Elsewhere
    • Trade Wars, Tariffs
    • Political, Geopolitical, Coming Midterms
    • Inflation the Most Important Macro “Fundamental” Risk
      • Interest Rates and the Economy Behavior in a Typical Upcycle
        • Tax and Federal Government Spending Fiscal Stimulus This Time—Big Pump Now and in 2019—Demand and Supply-Side Effects
      • Fed Policy in Transition—Path Planned But Less Certain
        • Sustaining and Maintaining Full Employment and Price Stability Now the Goal
        • Transition in Thinking About the “*Stars”—The “Forward Guidance”
          • Full Employment Unemployment Rate (Natural Rate), 2% Price Stability and “Neutral” Interest Rate in Doubt
          • Financial Instability and the Fed
        • Financial Markets Implications—Stocks, Fixed Income, the Dollar—Short-Run and Longer
          • Earnings, Equity Market Fair Value, Ranges and Risks
          • Interest Rate Prospects
          • S. Dollar

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