REPLAY – GDP Conference Call – 10/27/17

Posted October 27, 2017 by rvillareal

New Path for the Economy? Q3 GDP and Beyond

• “New Normal” or “New Path”?  2% or 3%?
• S. Economy and Inflation—Lifting Up?
  • Q3 GDP—Strong, Weak, Mixed?
  • What is Clicking?—What is Not?
  • Hurricanes’ Damage
    • Low Inflation Puzzle—Still Low?
  • Tax Cuts Coming and Perspective
    • Tax Cut Historical Perspectives and Growth
    • Tax Reductions and the Economy
  • Basic Prospect—“Overshoot” (70% Odds)
    • “Overshoot”—Growth, Inflation, Employment and Unemployment, Earnings
    • Economy “Without” Tax Cuts
    • Economy “With” Tax Cuts
    • Alternative Risk Scenarios
  • Fed Prospect and Interest Rates—“Tighter Money and Easier Fiscal Policy”
    • When Will Fed Integrate Tax Cut Stimulus in Fed Forecast?
    • Fed Reaction?
  • Financial Markets—Still Bullish Stocks, Bearish Fixed Income, a Better Dollar
    • 2550 Current Fair Value S&P; 2700 Upside; 2800 Plus Late in 2018
    • 50% Fair Value U.S. 10-Year Yield
    • 2-1/4%-to-2-3/4% Range—Direction Up

[private]

[/private]