REPLAY: GDP Conference Call – 7/27/18

Posted July 27, 2018 by rvillareal

A “Wow” Quarter?—First Report on Q2 U.S. Economy

• Second Quarter Real GDP—Strong Rebound to the “New” Normal Path of Permanently Higher Growth?
  • Real GDP and Its Component—Strengths and Weaknesses
  • Why the Rebound From Q1?
    • Can a Now Higher Growth Path of 3%, a Little More, Little

Less, Be Sustained?

• S. Economy Path Ahead: The “Baseline Prospect”—The “New” New Normal
  • Consumer—Fundamentals All Supportive
    • Business Sector—Strong Fundamentals
    • Manufacturing—Picking Up and Inventories Under Control
    • Federal Government Spending—A New Surprise?
    • Trade and Net Exports—Maybe Not So Bad As Thought
  • Employment, Unemployment, and Inflation Prospect: Parameters of the “Baseline Prospect” vs. the Fed
  • Macro Risks to the “Baseline Prospect”
    • Trade, Tariffs, Uncertainty
    • Too High Price Inflation?
    • Political and Geopolitical
  • Fed Prospect and Interest Rate Outlook
  • DE Earnings Upward Revisions and the Continuing Bull Equity Market
    • Point Fair Value
    • Upside and Downside Bounds
    • Yearend Target
      • Policy Mix Backdrop Going Forward—Easy Fiscal-Tighter Money and Implications

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