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REPLAY | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Finally Weakening? Labor Market in April, the Economy Prospect, Fed and Markets – 5/5/23
- Labor Market in April—Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls), Persons Working (Household Survey), Unemployment Rate, Wage Inflation, Strengths and Weaknesses
- Puzzle of the
Labor Market—Why So Strong? And So Long with
Rising Interest Rates?
- “Pandemic” and “Rebound” with Demand for Labor Way Up and Supply Constrained
- Case of the “Missing” Workers
- Structural Changes in the Labor Market
- Techno-centric from Labor-centric?
- Economy “Basic
Prospect”—“Soft Landing” (Odds 55%); “Recession” (Odds 35%); Fed Scenario
“Growth Recession” (Odds 10%)
- Major Parameters—Growth, Inflation, Unemployment, Interest Rates
- Profits Recession?
- “Financial Factor”—Disarray, Instability, Fragility, Failures and Crisis the Risk
- Latest Fed Meeting, Outcome, and Fed Prospect
- Financial Markets—Equities, Higher Fair Value and Fair Value Ranges; Dollar, Under Pressure Except vs. Yen; Interest Rates—On Average, Bouncing Around with a Tilt Up on a Fed Pause