» REPLAY| Monthly | Employment Conference Call | How Much Weakening? Labor Market in November and the Economy – 12/4/20 Decision Economics

REPLAY| Monthly | Employment Conference Call | How Much Weakening? Labor Market in November and the Economy – 12/4/20

Posted December 4, 2020 by rvillareal

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How Much Weakening?  Labor Market in November
and the Economy –  Labor Market in November—How Much Slowing?  How Much Weaker?

  • Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls); Persons Working (Household Survey); Unemployment Rate (Labor Force and Unemployed)
  • Pandemic and the Labor Market

 –  “K” Labor Market—Hiring and Not Hiring

  • Hiring—Where and Implications?
  • Not Hiring—Where and Implications?

 –  Sticky-High Unemployment Rate and Higher Company Profit Margins –  The Fed Chair Powell and Janet Yellen (Full Employment Mavens) –  DE “Basic Prospect” and Major Macro Risk Alternative(s)

  • Alphabet Letter “‘L’ with an Uptilt at the Bottom” or “Swoosh” (65% Odds) Why This?
  • Major Alternative “W” or “Double-Dip” (Odds 15%)
  • Working Assumptions—Pandemic Worst Here-and-Now; 2021 “Year of the Vaccine”; Fiscal Policy Stimulus; Non-U.S. Economies; “Mood of America” and Pentup Demands

 –  Financial Markets Perspectives

  • Stock Market—Fair Value and Fair Value Ranges
  • Interest Rates—Tending Higher
  • U.S. Dollar Soft