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REPLAY| Monthly | Employment Conference Call | How Much Weakening? Labor Market in November and the Economy – 12/4/20
How Much Weakening? Labor Market in November
and the Economy – Labor Market in November—How Much Slowing? How Much Weaker?
- Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls); Persons Working (Household Survey); Unemployment Rate (Labor Force and Unemployed)
- Pandemic and the Labor Market
– “K” Labor Market—Hiring and Not Hiring
- Hiring—Where and Implications?
- Not Hiring—Where and Implications?
– Sticky-High Unemployment Rate and Higher Company Profit Margins – The Fed Chair Powell and Janet Yellen (Full Employment Mavens) – DE “Basic Prospect” and Major Macro Risk Alternative(s)
- Alphabet Letter “‘L’ with an Uptilt at the Bottom” or “Swoosh” (65% Odds) Why This?
- Major Alternative “W” or “Double-Dip” (Odds 15%)
- Working Assumptions—Pandemic Worst Here-and-Now; 2021 “Year of the Vaccine”; Fiscal Policy Stimulus; Non-U.S. Economies; “Mood of America” and Pentup Demands
– Financial Markets Perspectives
- Stock Market—Fair Value and Fair Value Ranges
- Interest Rates—Tending Higher
- U.S. Dollar Soft