REPLAY| Monthly | Employment Conference Call | How Much Weakening? Labor Market in November and the Economy – 12/4/20

Posted December 4, 2020 by rvillareal

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How Much Weakening?  Labor Market in November
and the Economy –  Labor Market in November—How Much Slowing?  How Much Weaker?

• Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls); Persons Working (Household Survey); Unemployment Rate (Labor Force and Unemployed)
• Pandemic and the Labor Market

 –  “K” Labor Market—Hiring and Not Hiring

• Hiring—Where and Implications?
• Not Hiring—Where and Implications?

 –  Sticky-High Unemployment Rate and Higher Company Profit Margins –  The Fed Chair Powell and Janet Yellen (Full Employment Mavens) –  DE “Basic Prospect” and Major Macro Risk Alternative(s)

• Alphabet Letter “‘L’ with an Uptilt at the Bottom” or “Swoosh” (65% Odds) Why This?
• Major Alternative “W” or “Double-Dip” (Odds 15%)
• Working Assumptions—Pandemic Worst Here-and-Now; 2021 “Year of the Vaccine”; Fiscal Policy Stimulus; Non-U.S. Economies; “Mood of America” and Pentup Demands

 –  Financial Markets Perspectives

• Stock Market—Fair Value and Fair Value Ranges
• Interest Rates—Tending Higher
• U.S. Dollar Soft