REPLAY | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Is the Worst Over?The Labor Market and the Economy – 6/5/20

Posted June 5, 2020 by rvillareal

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Is the Worst Over?
The Labor Market and the Economy

• Is the Worst Over? Labor Market in May
  • Jobs, Unemployment Rate, Earnings—Can it Get Any Worse?
  • Q2 Track for the Economy and Beyond—Reopenings
  • Basic Prospect—Still “ ‘L’ With An Uptilt” (55%, Up from 50%)
  • Other Possibilities—
  • “V” (Odds 20%, No Change);
  • “U” (Odds 25%, Down From 30%)
  • Depression and Deflation—Debt Deflation—A Sneaky 1930s Possibility
• Slack in the Economy—Potential Growth vs. Actual Growth (the “Gap) and Continuing High Unemployment (Double-Digits)
• Policy Responses—Public Health and the Coronavirus; The Fed; Fiscal Stimulus

• Geopolitical and Political Tensions as Macro Risks
• Financial Markets Prospects—Interest Rates, Equity Market Fair Value Ranges