» REPLAY | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Is the Worst Over?The Labor Market and the Economy – 6/5/20 Decision Economics

REPLAY | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Is the Worst Over?The Labor Market and the Economy – 6/5/20

Posted June 5, 2020 by rvillareal

Is the Worst Over?
The Labor Market and the Economy

  • Is the Worst Over? Labor Market in May
    • Jobs, Unemployment Rate, Earnings—Can it Get Any Worse?
    • Q2 Track for the Economy and Beyond—Reopenings
    • Basic Prospect—Still “ ‘L’ With An Uptilt” (55%, Up from 50%)
    • Other Possibilities—
    • “V” (Odds 20%, No Change);
    • “U” (Odds 25%, Down From 30%)
    • Depression and Deflation—Debt Deflation—A Sneaky 1930s Possibility
  • Slack in the Economy—Potential Growth vs. Actual Growth (the “Gap) and Continuing High Unemployment (Double-Digits)
  • Policy Responses—Public Health and the Coronavirus; The Fed; Fiscal Stimulus
  • Geopolitical and Political Tensions as Macro Risks
  • Financial Markets Prospects—Interest Rates, Equity Market Fair Value Ranges